Global Oil Inventories Forecast to Hit 23-Year Low as Trump Taps US Reserves

Published: Jun 10, 2026 - 3:02 p.m.

By Analese Hartford

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is rapidly approaching its lowest level in decades, according to new data released today by the Energy Information Administration. Current projections indicate that domestic reserves will soon mirror the record lows seen during the Biden administration, while global oil inventories are expected to drop to levels not recorded since 2003. This downward trend is a direct consequence of the ongoing war with Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA report suggests the strait, a critical artery for global energy located between Oman and Iran, will remain effectively closed for the near term. While President Trump has suggested a resolution could be reached soon, his own government analysts do not expect a return to normal shipping volumes until early 2027. To stabilize the market, the administration began tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, in March. The plan involves releasing 172 million barrels over a four-month period. It is a move that mirrors actions taken by the previous administration in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At that time, then-candidate Trump criticized the decision, claiming it was an attempt to artificially suppress gas prices. Now, the math shows the U.S. is on a similar trajectory. As of the final week of May, the SPR holds 357 million barrels of crude oil. For context, the reserve hit a 40-year low of 346 million barrels in July 2023 before the government began the slow process of refilling the salt caverns along the Gulf Coast. If the current rate of depletion continues, the U.S. will likely breach that 2023 floor within the next week. The supply crunch is not limited to the United States. Across the 38 member nations of the OECD, inventories are tightening. Middle Eastern producers have cut output by roughly 11 million barrels a day compared to pre-war levels. This massive gap in production has forced nations to lean heavily on their emergency stockpiles to meet global demand. Despite a slight dip in crude prices during May, the EIA predicts a barrel of oil will hover around $105 through June and July. Relief is not expected to be immediate. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens later this year, the agency forecasts it will take until 2027 for prices to settle back toward $79 a barrel. The energy squeeze is extending to the domestic power grid. Electricity generation costs rose 6 percent in April, and the EIA is now forecasting an additional 3 percent increase this summer. Analysts point to above-average temperatures as the primary driver for the spike in utility bills. Residents can expect these higher costs to persist as the summer heat increases the load on the national grid. -------------------- At Cleveland 13 News, we strive to provide accurate, up-to-date, and reliable reporting. If you spot an error, omission, or have information that may need updating, please email us at tips@cleveland13news.com. As a community-driven news network, we appreciate the help of our readers in ensuring the integrity of our reporting.