Is Air Travel Getting More Dangerous or Is Media Just Paying More Attention?

(WCTU CLEVELAND 13) — A series of recent aviation accidents in the United States has prompted public concern, though experts assert these incidents are statistical anomalies rather than indicators of declining safety standards.

As of now (February 21, 2025), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports 88 aviation accidents this year, with 13 resulting in fatalities. Notable incidents include the January 29 midair collision over the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., involving an American Airlines regional jet and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter, which claimed 67 lives. Additionally, on February 6, Bering Air Flight 445 crashed in Alaska, resulting in 10 fatalities. More recently, on February 19, a Lancair and a Cessna collided midair over Marana Regional Airport in Arizona, leading to two confirmed deaths.

Despite these events, aviation experts emphasize that air travel remains exceptionally safe. Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the MIT Sloan School of Management, notes that the likelihood of a passenger fatality is approximately one in 100 million. He attributes the recent cluster of accidents to random chance, stating, "When events are rare, as plane crashes with high death tolls now are, it’s [statistically] normal to have long periods without any events interspersed with short spasms with several events."

Similarly, Flavio A. Coimbra Mendonça, an associate professor of aeronautical science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, highlights that over the past five decades, accident rates have consistently declined, even as air travel has grown worldwide. He reassures travelers that aviation safety continues to improve, making air travel an extremely safe choice.

While the recent accidents have garnered significant media attention, data indicates that the number of aviation accidents has decreased compared to the same period last year. By this time in 2024, there were more than 100 accidents, including 18 that were fatal, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

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